CDC Releases New National Estimates of Lifetime HIV Risk

Feb 24, 2016 | Alyssa Kitlas

The CDC released estimates that show if current HIV diagnoses rates persist, approximately 1 in 2 black gay and bisexual men and 1 in 4 Latino gay and bisexual men in the United States will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime. CDC analyses presented at the 2016 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) in Boston show:

  • Gay and bisexual men continue to be most affected by the HIV epidemic in the U.S.; at current rates, 1 in 6 men who have sex with men (MSM) will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime, including 1 in 2 black MSM, 1 in 4 Latino MSM, and 1 in 11 white MSM.
  • African Americans are by far the most affected racial or ethnic group, with a lifetime HIV risk of 1 in 20 for men (compared to 1 in 132 for whites) and 1 in 48 for women (compared to 1 in 880 for whites).
  • People who inject drugs are at much higher lifetime risk than the general population, and women who inject drugs have a higher risk than men (1 in 23 compared with 1 in 36).
  • People living in the South are much more likely to be diagnosed with HIV over the course of their lifetime than other Americans, with the highest risk in Washington, DC (1 in 13), Maryland (1 in 49), Georgia (1 in 51), Florida (1 in 54), and Louisiana (1 in 56).

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